基于CMIP6多模式的长江流域蒸散发预估及影响因素
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1.南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/地理科学学院;2.江苏 南京 210044

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(41875094)和国家自然科学基金委中德科学中心“中德国际合作研究组(Sino-German Cooperation Group)”项目(GZ1447)的支持。


Projected Evapotranspiration and the influencing factors in the Yangtze River Basin based on CMIP6 models
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Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/School of Geographic Sciences,Nanjing University of information Technology

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    摘要:

    蒸散发是水文循环和能量传输的中间环节,同时也是联结土壤、植被、大气过程的纽带。基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)12个全球气候模式数据,研究了SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5 3种情景下,长江流域2020-2099年实际蒸散发(Evapotranspiration,ET)的时空变化及其影响因素。研究结果表明,在3种气候变化情景下长江流域ET相较基准期(1995-2015年)均存在显著增加趋势,且长江中下游地区增加趋势最为显著;SSP1-2.6情景ET较基准期先快速增加,2060s之后减缓并趋于平稳,SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下均呈持续增加趋势。研究了降水(Precipitation,Pr)、气温(Air Temperature,T)和叶面积指数(Leaf Area Index,LAI)对长江流域ET的影响;SSP1-2.6和SSP2-4.5情景下,长江流域ET受T影响最为显著,而SSP5-8.5情景下,LAI是影响ET的主导因素。在3种气候情景下,辐射强迫越大,植被增加趋势越显著,对ET的影响越强(SSP5-8.5> SSP2-4.5> SSP1-2.6),而ET对LAI的敏感性则逐渐降低(SSP1-2.6> SSP2-4.5> SSP5-8.5)。

    Abstract:

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is the bridge between hydrologic and energy cycles, linking soil, vegetation and atmospheric processes. Based on the output of 12 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6) models, the actual ET change during 2020-2099 and the influencing factors in the Yangtze River basin are studied under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios. The results have shown that, land ET has significantly increased under the three scenarios compared with the baseline period (1995-2015), especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, ET increases rapidly until 2060s and then levelled off; and an continous increase is indicated under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The influencing factors of precipitation (Pr), air temperature (T) and leaf area index (LAI) are studied, and T appears to be the most important factor influencing Yangtze ET under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios; however, LAI becomes the dominant across the Yangtze River basin under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Under the three scenarios, LAI increases significantly with increased radiative forcing, leading to significantly increased vegetation impact on land ET (SSP5-8.5> SSP2-4.5> SSP1-2.6); however, the sensitivity of ET to LAI change appears to decrease with increased radiative forcing (SSP1-2.6> SSP2-4.5> SSP5-8.5).

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  • 收稿日期:2020-09-27
  • 最后修改日期:2020-11-05
  • 录用日期:2020-11-11
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