近40年黄河上游气候变化特征及其对生态植被和径流量的影响
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1.① 兰州大学 大气科学学院 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室;2.② 兰州中心气象台;3.③ 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室;4.④ 甘肃省气象局

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Characteristics of climate change in the upper Yellow River Basin and its influence on vegetation and runoff during recent 40 Years
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1.Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, 2.Lanzhou Center Meteorological Observatory;2.1. Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University,3.Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/ Key Open Laboratory of Arid Change and Disaster Reduction, Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration,4. Gansu Meteorological Bureau;3.Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/ Key Open Laboratory of Arid Change and Disaster Reduction, Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration;4.Lanzhou Center Meteorological Observatory

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    摘要:

    黄河上游是黄河流域最重要的水源涵养地和产流区,对黄河流域的水资源安全、生态环境和粮食安全有决定性的意义。近年来在西北地区气候暖湿化的背景下,黄河上游气候生态水文等问题受到了各方的高度关注。本文利用卫星遥感数据、格点融合数据和水文监测数据,分析了黄河上游气候的多尺度变化特征及其对植被和径流量的影响。结果表明:(1)近40年黄河上游暖湿化趋势是全区域较一致的气候特征,温度增加率为0.023℃/a,降水增加率为1.09mm/a,但同时又具有明显的区域差异性,近40年湟水流域-甘肃中部降水增加最显著,宁蒙荒漠地带增温趋势最明显,2000年以来整个黄河上游降水明显增加。2000年后汇流区与流径区的蒸散发明显增加,但源头区南部波动减少。(2)当前的暖湿化有利于黄河上游植被生长,1999年以来汇流区和源头区部分区域的植被增加率达到0.04/10a;从长期趋势看,源头区与汇流区植被指数与上年降水呈显著正相关,而流径区与当年降水相关性显著;降水对黄河上游流域植被具有明显的改善作用,而温度则对其影响更为复杂,各区域不同的植被类型是导致降水、温度、蒸散影响差异的可能原因。(3)近40年唐乃亥站及兰州站的年径流量均呈减少趋势,但1998年以来两站的年径流量明显增加,兰州站年径流量的增加率是唐乃亥站近3倍。长期趋势表明唐乃亥站年径流量与当年降水呈显著正相关,兰州站年径流量与当年降水、蒸散的相关系数均明显低于唐乃亥站;从年际波动看降水是决定年径流量的最主要影响因子,我们也不能忽视生态植被、冻土退化、水储量变化及社会活动等因素对径流量的影响。该研究为科学应对黄河上游的生态保护问题和实现黄河流域高质量发展提供参考依据。

    Abstract:

    The upper Yellow River Basin is the most important water source, which is of decisive significance to the water resources security, ecological environment and food security. Under the background of warm and humid climate in Northwest China, and climate, hydrology and ecology research have attracted in the upper Yellow River Basin. The multi-scale variation characteristics of climate and its impact on ecological vegetation and runoff are analyzed by using satellite remote sensing data, grid fusion data and hydrological monitoring data. The results was summarized as follows: (1) it is consistent with whole region on warming and wetting trend recent 40 years, meanwhile, which show significant regional differences, the temperature and precipitation increase rate was 0.023℃/a, 1.09mm/a respectively; in the past 40 years, the precipitation showed obvious increasing trend over the confluence area of Huangshui River Basin and central part of Gansu province, while the increasing trend in the desert region of flow area was significantly. The whole Yellow River Basin has experienced a significant wetting process since 2000. Moreover, the actual evapotranspiration increased significantly over confluence and flow area since 2000, but the source area decreased. (2) Due to the current warm and humid climate, which was conducive to the vegetation growth, since 1999, the vegetation increased significantly with rate reaching 0.04/10a in the source and confluence area. From the long-term trend, we concluded the previous year precipitation have significant influence on vegetation index in source and confluence area, however, the flow area vegetation index present positive correlation with previous precipitation. It is obvious that the precipitation improved the growth of vegetation, while the temperature have more complex effect on vegetation. thus, the different vegetation type may be the key factor causing the differences response to precipitation. (3) Affected by the variation of climate and vegetation, the annual runoff of both Tangnaihai and Lanzhou Station have been decreasing in the past 40 years, but showed significant increasing trend since 1998, and the rate of increased runoff of Lanzhou station is nearly three times that of Tangnaihai station. We found there was significant positive correlation between the runoff of Tangnaihai station and precipitation, while the correlation coefficient of Lanzhou Station was lower than that of Tangnaihai from long long-term trend. After detrend, precipitation is the most important factor to determine the annual runoff, meanwhile, we should not ignore the influences of ecological vegetation, frozen soil degradation, water reserve change and social activities on runoff. This study provides reference for the scientific response to the ecological protection and the realization of high quality development in the upper Yellow River Basin.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-09-24
  • 最后修改日期:2020-11-02
  • 录用日期:2020-11-03
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