大气低频振荡对2015年冬季华北强降温事件的影响
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1.①南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室;2.②南京信息工程大学;3.③昔阳县气象局,山西,045300

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The influences of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation on extreme cold events in North China in winter of 2015
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1.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disas-ter(NUIST),Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science &2.Technology, Nanjing 210044,China;3.Xiyang County Meteorological Bureau, Shanxi,045300,China

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    摘要:

    利用1980-2016年中国日最低温度和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了大气低频振荡对华北2015年冬季区域强降温事件(Regional Extremely Cold Event,简称RECE)的影响。结果表明:1)两次过程均与最低温度10~20d低频分量从峰到谷值的变化相应。2)第一(二)次过程巴尔喀什湖-贝加尔湖(简称巴-贝湖)高压位置偏西(偏东北),西伯利亚高压偏南(偏北),东亚大槽呈东北-西南(南-北)走向,阿留申低压偏深(偏西偏深),无(有)北极涛动负异常,高低层冷空气源地均位于贝湖北部60°N附近(巴湖以北上空和华北局地),降温较慢(快速)。地中海低频扰动能量的持续输送是造成两次降温过程持续时间差异的原因之一。3)-18d(-12d)500hPa高度场中西欧低频负(正)异常,是华北强降温事件的延伸期预报参考信号。

    Abstract:

    The influence of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation on the regional extremely cold event (RECE) in winter of 2015 in North China is investigated using daily minimum temperature data in China and NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data from 1980 to 2016. The results show that: (1) the two RECEs in winter of 2015 are corresponding to the changes of the 10~20d low-frequency component of the minimum temperature from peak to valley. (2)In the first (second) process, the Lake Balkhash- Lake Baikal (referred to as Ba-Bei Lake) high pressure is located to the west (northeast), the Siberian High pressure is to the south (north), the East Asian trough is northeast to southwest (south to north), the Aleutian Low is deeper (westward and deeper), and there is no (a) negative Arctic Oscillation anomaly. The source of cold air in the upper and lower layers is located near 60°N in the northern part of Lake Baikal (above the north of Lake Balkhash and North China, respectively) and cooling is slower (faster) for the first(second) process. The continuous transmission of low-frequency disturbance energy in the Mediterranean Sea is one of the reasons for the difference in the duration of the two cooling processes.(3) The low-frequency negative (positive) anomaly in Western Europe at 500hPa height field in the -18d(-12d) is a valuable reference for predicting RECEs in North China.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-09-14
  • 最后修改日期:2021-03-04
  • 录用日期:2021-05-20
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