邻域空间检验技术在集合降水预报检验中的应用
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

1.黑龙江省黑河气象局;2.国家气象中心;3.成都信息工程大学

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41905091),国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0604500), 公益性行业(气象)科研专项课题(GYHY201506002)


An Extend Spatial Verification Technique to Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Heihe Weather Office of Heilongjiang Province;2.National Meteorological Center;3.Chengdu University of Information Technology

Fund Project:

National Natural Science Foundation of China (41905091),National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFA0604500) ,China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201506002)

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    常规降水检验受空间及时间微小差异所带来的"双重惩罚"严重影响,邻域空间检验FSS(Fraction Skill Score)方法在确定性预报中已体现出弥补这一不足的明显优势。随着集合预报分辨率的不断提高,集合降水预报同样存在与确定性预报相似的问题,本文将FSS方法拓展至集合预报领域,构建适用于集合预报的降水空间检验指标EFSS(Ensemble Fraction Skill Score),利用ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)集合预报模式2018年夏季降水预报产品及国家气象信息中心提供的格点化降水融合产品进行分析发现,EFSS评分不受集合成员数影响,可获取一致性的评估结论。通过与适用于集合预报的常规技巧评分EETS (Ensemble Equitable Threat Score)对比分析发现,常规技巧评分受限于评分过低而无法有效反映强降水过程间差异性特征,EFSS方法则可有效提升强降水预报检验辨识度。

    Abstract:

    The traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known double penalty problem caused by slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecast and observations. The FSS (Fraction skill score) as a popular scientific and diagnostic spatial technique has been proposed for deterministic simulations, while it shows significant advantage in solving this problem. With the ensemble forecast resolution increasing, ensemble precipitation forecasts also have similar problems with deterministic forecasts. In this paper, a new ensemble precipitation verification skill score with spatial technique EFSS (Ensemble Fraction Skill Score) is developed based on extending FSS from deterministic into ensemble forecasts. Using daily forecast products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts and QPE products from national meteorological information center during June and August in 2018, the scoring consistency and the difference with traditional skill score in operational application have been analyzed. It shows that EFSS is not affected by the ensemble members and the consistent evaluation conclusions can be obtained. By comparison with EETS (Ensemble Equitable Threat Score), which is suitable for ensemble forecasting extending from deterministic traditional skill score, it shows that the traditional skill scoring is limited by low skill to effectively assess the different characteristics of heavy precipitation processes. However, EFSS can effectively improve the identification of heavy precipitation forecast verification.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2020-07-29
  • 最后修改日期:2020-11-30
  • 录用日期:2021-01-12
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期:

地址:江苏南京,宁六路219号,南京信息工程大学    邮编:210044

联系电话:025-58731158    E-mail:xbbjb@nuist.edu.cn    QQ交流群号:344646895

大气科学学报 ® 2021 版权所有  技术支持:北京勤云科技发展有限公司