Abstract:In 2013,a record-breaking extreme high temperature occurred in central and eastern China,causing serious losses to social economy and property of people.Based on the daily maximum temperature from CN05.1 and the data from 17 CMIP5 models,this paper studies the risk of the record-breaking extreme high temperature in 2013 and the extreme high temperature with long return periodsof 20,50 and 100 years under the global warming of 1.5 and 2℃ in the future.The daily maximum temperature data simulated by CMIP5 models are corrected by the bias-corrected method of quantile mapping.Results show that the bias correction can significantly reduce the biases of simulated maximum temperature.Compared with the historical period from 1986 to 2005,the risk of occurrence of extreme high temperature intensity (days)in 2013 will increase to 3.0/6.1 (5.6/12.6) time sunder the global warming of 1.5/2℃ in the future.From 1.5℃ to 2℃,the additional 0.5℃ warming will increase the future risk of extreme high temperature intensity (days) in 2013 to 2.0 (2.3) times.For extreme high temperatures with different return periods,the rarer high temperatures have larger risk increase in the future,and the risk of increasing of extreme temperature days is greater than that of the intensity.The days of extreme high temperature that occurred once in 20,50 and 100 years in the historical period will become once in 4,8 and 15 years (once in 2,3 and 6 years) under the global warming of 1.5℃ (2℃) in the future.The intensity of extreme high temperature that occurred once in 20,50 and 100 years in the historical period will become once in 7,14 and 27 years (once in 4,6 and 8 years) under the global warming of 1.5℃(2℃) in the future.