热带北太平洋海温异常对2018年华南前汛期降水负异常事件的影响
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1.江苏省南京市南京信息工程大学大气科学学院;2.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目);国家杰出青年科学基金;国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)


Influence of SST Anomalies in the Tropical North Pacific on Negative Precipitation Anomalies in South China's First Rainy Season in 2018
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Affiliation:

1.School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology;2.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education ( KLME) /Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change ( ILCEC) /Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters ( CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science &3.amp;4.Technology

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan);The National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars;The National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)

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    摘要:

    2018年华南(广东省和广西壮族自治区)前汛期降水异常偏少,区域平均总降水量为410.9mm,较气候平均偏少约40%。本文研究结果显示,2018年华南前汛期降水负异常事件和热带北太平洋(tropical northern Pacific,TNP)海温偏暖有关。热带北太平洋海温正异常,通过Mastuno-Gill响应引起西北太平洋气旋式环流异常,中国南海东风异常,减弱了南海夏季风,华南至中国南海地区对流层低层存在异常反气旋环流。水汽存在由中纬度北太平洋经黑潮海区-华南地区-中国南海-菲律宾群岛向热带太平洋的异常输送,且华南地区为水汽的异常辐散区域。另一方面,TNP区域暖海温异常引起了该区域低层异常辐合、高层异常辐散、异常上升运动,使得华南地区高层异常辐合、低层异常辐散、异常下沉运动。这样的环流配置对华南地区降水的产生有不利影响,引起了2018年华南前汛期降水异常偏少。2018年TNP区域暖海温异常引起华南前汛期降水负异常的物理机制还在ECHAM5模式30个成员集合平均的试验结果中得以验证。

    Abstract:

    In 2018, the precipitation in the first rainy season in South China (Guangdong Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region) was abnormally little, with the regional average total precipitation of 410.9mm, which was about 40% less than the average climate.The results of this study show that the precipitation negative anomaly in the first rainy season in South China in 2018 is related to the warm sea temperature in the tropical northern Pacific (TNP). The SST positive anomaly in the tropical North Pacific resulted in the cyclonic circulation anomaly in the Northwest Pacific and the east wind anomaly in the South China Sea through Mastuno-Gill response ,which weakened the South China Sea summer monsoon. Abnormal anticyclonic circulation existed in the lower troposphere from South China to South China Sea. There is an abnormal transport of water vapor from the mid-latitude North Pacific Ocean to the tropical Pacific Ocean via Kuroshio Sea Area-South China Sea-South China Sea-Philippine Islands, and South China is an abnormal divergence region of water vapor. On the other hand, the warm sea temperature anomaly in TNP region has caused abnormal convergence in the lower layer, abnormal divergence in the upper layer, and abnormal upward movement in the region, leading abnormal convergence in the upper layer, abnormal divergence in the lower layer, and abnormal subsidence movement in South China.This circulation arrangement is not conducive to the production of precipitation in South China, resulting in unusually little precipitation in South China's first rainy season in 2018. The physical mechanism of TNP regional warm sea temperature anomaly causing negative precipitation anomaly in South China's first rainy season in 2018 is also verified by the average test results of 30 member-sets of ECHAM5 model.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-05-12
  • 最后修改日期:2020-07-12
  • 录用日期:2020-10-09
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