气候变化背景下北京市短历时暴雨的强度及雨型变化特征
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国家重点研发计划“重大自然灾害监测预警与防范”重点专项(2017YFC1502701);北京市教委科研计划资助项目(KM201810016009)


Variation characteristics of intensity and pattern of short duration rainstorm in Beijing under the background of climate change
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    摘要:

    利用1961—2017年北京观象台站逐分钟降雨资料,根据《城市暴雨强度公式编制和设计暴雨雨型确定技术导则》,建立了北京市1961—1990年和1991—2017年两个气候态下的暴雨强度公式和2 a重现期下历时30 min、60 min、90 min、120 min、150 min、180 min以5 min为时间段的设计暴雨雨型。结果表明:1)P-Ⅲ型分布曲线对北京市两个气候态下各历时降雨量的拟合效果最好,暴雨强度公式精度最高。2)对比1961—1990年和1991—2017年暴雨强度公式,整体而言,后者各历时重现期的暴雨强度值较低,但随着重现期的增大,两者的雨强差值也增大。3)1961—1990年和1991—2017年短历时雨型的雨峰位置系数分别为0.436和0.382,2 a重现期下前者的各历时雨峰位置比后者提前,各历时累积降雨均在初期增长较慢、雨峰前后增长较快,之后增速明显减缓。

    Abstract:

    In recent years,with the rapid development of cities and the improvement of drainage design requirements,it is particularly important to study the characteristics and patterns of urban rainstorm.Based on the minute-by-minute rainfall data of Beijing Observatory station during 1961—2017,according to the Technical Guidelines for Establishment of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curve and Design Rainstorm Profile,this paper established the rainstorm intensity formulas in Beijing under the two climate states of 1961—1990 and 1991—2017,and the design rainstorm patterns of 30 min,60 min,90 min,120 min,150 min and 180 min durations with 5 min as the time period under the two-year return period.Results show that:(1) The P-Ⅲ pattern distribution curve has the best fitting effect on the rainfall of each duration under the two climate states in Beijing,and the rainstorm intensity formula has the highest precision.(2) Compared with the rainstorm intensity formulas of 1961—1990 and 1991—2017,on the whole,the rainstorm intensity value of the latter under each return period is lower,but with the increase of return period,the difference in rainfall intensity between them increases.(3) During 1961—1990 and 1991—2017,the location coefficients of short duration rainstorm peaks are 0.436 and 0.382,respectively.Under the two-year return period,the positions of rain peaks during 1961—1990 are earlier than those during1991—2017.The accumulated rainfall of each duration increases slowly in the initial stage,increases rapidly before and after the rain peak,and then slows down significantly.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2019-11-29
  • 最后修改日期:2020-04-01
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-11-06
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