欧亚大陆极端降水事件的区域变化特征
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国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600703);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41805046;41991285);南京信息工程大学人才启动经费(2017r085)


Regional characteristics of extreme precipitation events in Eurasia
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    摘要:

    近年来,在全球变暖的背景下,极端气候事件特别是极端降水事件,发生频率愈发上升。本文使用美国气候预测中心提供的逐日降水资料,统计分析了1979—2018年期间欧亚大陆各个子区域极端降水事件的时空变化特征。结果表明:1)从气候态的空间分布特征来看,南欧、南亚、东南亚、东亚地区为欧亚大陆全年总降水量高值区,同时也是极端强降水频发地区;而东亚地区青藏高原、中国中西部至蒙古一带,南亚地区印度次大陆以及中亚、西亚等地的部分地区则是连续性干旱事件的高频区,极端强降水事件发生频次较少;2)在21世纪初之后,东南亚、南亚、东亚、北亚、西亚和南欧这6个地区的全年总降水量发生年代际增加,且在研究时段呈显著增加趋势。在过去近40 a,南亚、东亚和中亚的RX1day(日最大降水量)、RX5day(连续5 d最大降水量)、中雨日数(R10mm)、大雨日数(R20mm)自20世纪90年代中期年代际增加,且呈长期增加趋势。南亚、北亚、东亚、中亚这4个地区的最大连续干旱日数在20世纪80年代初显著增加,但长期趋势并不显著。需要指出的是,自2014年起极端强降水事件在东南亚、南亚和东亚地区持续增多,而连续性干旱事件在北欧地区持续增多。

    Abstract:

    In recent decades,an increasing number of extreme climate events,especially extreme precipitation events,occurred under the background of global warming.Based on daily precipitation data from the US Climate Prediction Center,this paper analyzed spatial distribution and temporal variation of extreme precipitation events(including RX1day,RX5day,R10mm,R20mm,CDD) over the Eurasian continent during 1979 and 2018.The results was summarized as follows:1)As for the spatial distribution,large PRCPTOT prevailed over the South Europe,South Asia,Southeast Asia and East Asia,along with frequent extreme heavy precipitation events (i.e.,RX1day,RX5day,R10mm,R20mm) over these sub-regions.In addition,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Central China and Mongolia in East Asia,the Indian subcontinent in South Asia and some parts of Central and West Asia,North Europe underwent high frequency of continuous drought and relatively fewer extreme heavy precipitation events.2)An interdecadal increase of PRCPTOT occurred in Southeast Asia,South Asia,East Asia,North Asia,West Asia and Southern Europe since the beginning of the 21st century with significant long-term upward trend during the whole period.Moreover,all RX1day,RX5day,R10 and R20 showed an interdecadal increase after the mid-1990s over South Asia,East Asia and central Asia with a long-term increasing tendency.Additionally,CDD showed a significant increase in South Asia,North Asia,East Asia and Central Asia in the 1980s,but the long-term trend was not obvious;It is notable that extreme heavy precipitation events significantly increased in Southeast Asia,South Asia and East Asia,while CDD occurred increasingly over North Europe since 2014.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-12-02
  • 最后修改日期:2020-04-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-08-31

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