全球变化背景下多尺度干旱过程及预测研究进展
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(41875105);国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFA0606002);南京信息工程大学人才启动经费


A review on multi-scale drought processes and prediction under global change
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    摘要:

    干旱是一种周期性的气候异常,主要受气候自然变率驱动,具有发展缓慢、持续时间长、影响范围广等特征。然而,气候变化使得干旱不仅有增加趋势,其特征也在发生变化。例如,发展迅速的干旱,也称骤旱,近年来频繁发生。此外,人类活动通过改变陆地水循环,直接或间接地影响干旱过程。在全球变化背景下,干旱机制研究由海-陆-气相互作用影响气象干旱的气候动力学研究扩展到包含干旱传递过程机理认识、考虑区域尺度人类活动影响,面向农业、水利、生态等行业的农业干旱和水文干旱研究,为认识干旱可预报性、发展预测方法带来了新的挑战。本文将针对多尺度干旱过程及预测,讨论相关的研究进展及未来发展方向。

    Abstract:

    Drought is defined as a period of climate anomaly,which is mainly driven by natural climate variability.It has the characteristics of slow development,long duration and wide range.However,due to climate change,drought is occurring with increased frequency and changing characteristics.For example,a type of drought with rapid development,also known as flash drought,has occurred frequently in recent years.Moreover,human activities also affect the processes of drought by altering the terrestrial water cycle.Under global change,drought research has been extended from understanding climate dynamics of meteorological drought by considering ocean-land-atmosphere interaction to investigating the propagation from meteorological drought to agricultural and hydrological droughts with the influence of human activities.The latter will provide direct climate service for agricultural,water resources,forest sectors,but they also bring new challenges for understanding of drought predictability and developing drought forecasting methods,especially in the Anthropocene.In this paper,we review the advances in multi-scale drought processes and prediction,and discuss future directions.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-11-05
  • 最后修改日期:2019-11-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-04-30

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