A statistical model of landslide and debris flow is established by using the landslide susceptibility distribution and the rainfall threshold formula.The landslide and debris flow in large scale across the country can be warned by this model.The statistical model was driven by CMORPH satellite precipitation in this paper,and 116 landslide and debris flow events occurred from 2016 to 2017 were validated and analyzed.The results show that the model can warn most of landslide and debris flow events,and 72.1% of the events in rainy season can be warned,while only 35% of the events in non-rainy season can be forecasted.The effect of warning in rainy season is better than that in non-rainy season.Since the landslide and debris flow events mainly occurred in rainy season,the model is considered to have good performance.In addition,the model has a good warning ability for rapid landslides and debris-flows caused by heavy rainfall,however,the warning effect of the slow landslide events triggered by lower intensity and long duration rainfall needs to be improved.Using the statistical model and CMORPH satellite precipitation real-time products,a real-time forecast system for landslide and debris flow in large scale can be established,which has certain significance for landslide and debris flow reduction and disaster prevention.