风电场风速数值预报的动态修订方法的探讨
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江苏省科技支撑计划(BE2010200);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)


Discussion on dynamic corrections of numerical prediction of wind velocity in wind farm
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    摘要:

    针对风电场风功率预测所需的定点、逐时风速预报,对利用中央气象台发布的MM5格点输出的数值预报风速插值到福建沿海某个风电场测风塔高度的预报结果进行误差分析,发现由于海陆交界的特殊下垫面等原因,存在一定的系统误差;根据误差的后延相关性和测风塔实时发回的气象资料,探讨了利用前期误差观测值和测风塔湍流指标对MM5数值预报风速进行动态修订的方法,建立了订正值方程,结果表明,订正后的预报风速平均绝对误差降低31%~54%,有效提高了预报精度.

    Abstract:

    Considering the required fixed-point and hourly wind speed forecast for the wind power prediction in wind farm,numerical prediction of wind velocity from the MM5 lattice point output released by the Central Meteorological station was interpolated into of an anemometer tower at a certain height in a wind farm along the coast of Fujian in this paper.Through error analysis of forecast results,we found that there were some systematic errors due to special underlying surface at the junction of land and sea.According to the lag correlation of the error and the real-time meteorological data from the anemometer tower,weinvestigated dynamic correction methods for numerical prediction of wind velocity from the MM5 using earlier error observations and anemometer tower turbulent indicators,and established revised equations.The average absolute error of the revised wind velocity forecast was reduced by 31%—54% and the accuracy of prediction was improved effectively.

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吴息,黄林宏,周海,王知嘉,江燕如,2014.风电场风速数值预报的动态修订方法的探讨[J].大气科学学报,37(5):665-670. WU Xi, HUANG Lin-hong, ZHOU Hai, WANG Zhi-jia, JIANG Yan-ru,2014. Discussion on dynamic corrections of numerical prediction of wind velocity in wind farm[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,37(5):665-670. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20121208005

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  • 收稿日期:2012-12-08
  • 最后修改日期:2013-10-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-10-31
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