This paper evaluates the future projection of heavy rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley based on outputs of eight coupled models attending the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5(CMIP5) from IPCC AR5.The experiments under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs) are compared with each other,and with the previous CMIP3 experiments as well.The outputs from the historical simulation of CMIP5 are also utilized as a base to derive future trends.The results suggest an agreement among all the CMIP5 models,in that both the strength and the occurrence frequency of heavy rainfall events are projected to increase in the 21st century relative to the last twenty years of the 20th century(1980—1999).In contrast,the strength increase in the east of the region is even greater than that in the west.Besides,the interannual variability of heavy rainfall events is also projected to enhance in the future.As for different RCPs,the projected increases in the strength and occurrence frequency of heavy rainfall events in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 are greater than those in RCP4.5.In comparison to CMIP3,the projected increases in the strength and occurrence frequency are even larger,albeit a significant difference in the spatial distribution in the latter projection.The projected maximum increase in the rainfall amplitude in CMIP3 is located in the central region,while it is in the east of the region in CMIP5.