Abstract:Based on the observations of 63 conventional meteorological stations and the investigated data of food-crops production in Jiangsu Province from 1986 to 2010,this paper studied the characteristics of climate change on three time scales in north,central and south Jiangsu,and the whole province.Based on the one-dimensional linear regression equation with the bootstrap resampling method,this paper studied the responses of the food-crops production to climate changes on the three time scales of crop-year(from November to October the next year),the growth seasons of summer(from Novemeber to May the next year) and autumn(from June to October) crops,and month.The influences of climate changes on the food-crops yield and the contributions of each climate factor in the past 25 years were quantitatively estimated.Results show that:1)In north,central and south Jiangsu,and the whole province,the climate factors are different on the time scales of crop-year,the growth season of summer and autumn crops and month,with some spatial-temporal differences.Under the combined impacts of the developing agricultural managements and technologies,and climate change,the food-crops yield per hectare in the four study areas increases significantly(p>0.01),with increasing trend of 66.89 kg·hm-2·a-1 in the whole province.2)Except that the response of the food-crops yield in south Jiangsu to climate change on the time scale of crop-year is not significant,the negative response of the food-crops yield to precipitation(the food-crops yield decreases when precipitation increases,and v.v.) can be found in the four study areas on the three time scales,indicating that precipitation variation plays an important role in the food-crops production.When precipitation increases(decreases),the food-crops yield in north and south Jiangsu,and Jiangsu decreases (increases),with the mean rates of 0.19%·(10 mm)-1,0.09%·(10 mm)-1 and 0.11%·(10 mm)-1,respectively.3)Results of the three models show that the food-crops production in north and south Jiangsu,and Jiangsu all decreases due to climate change.Results of Model-C established by monthly climate factors reveal that climate change leads to the food-crops yield per hectare(total production) decrease of -6.51%·(10 a)-1(-11.28×108 kg·(10 a)-1),-3.27%·(10 a)-1(-2.36×108 kg·(10 a)-1) and-1.34%·(10 a)-1(-4.45×108 kg·(10 a)-1) in north and south Jiangsu,and Jiangsu,respectively.Additionally,it is very necessary and critical to pay enough attention on the effects of monthly climate change in order to completely and systematically evaluate effects of climate change on food-crops production.