基于T106L26全球大气环流模式的夏季集合预报
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国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB955203);国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2010AA012404);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY(QX)201106022)


An ensemble forecast for summer with a global atmospheric general circulation model T106L26
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    摘要:

    使用国家气候中心新一代大气环流模式BCC_AGCM2.0(T106L26)进行22 a夏季(6-8月)、11个成员的集合回报试验;针对500 hPa高度场、降水和气温的预测能力进行交叉检验,并计算其均方根误差。结果表明:模式对热带地区、海洋和欧亚大陆部分地区500 hPa高度场的模拟较好;对我国长江中下游、华南大部分地区降水的模拟具有一定可信度;2 m温度距平在我国北方大部分地区呈现正相关且相关系数通过90%的信度检验,在南方地区则有待改善。集合预报效果好于单样本预报。模式分辨率的提高在一定程度上有助于改进预报效果。

    Abstract:

    The ensemble hindcast experiments of 11 members in summer(JJA) of 22 years were conducted by the BCC_AGCM2.0(T106L26) developed by National Climate Center.The capability of prediction in 500 hPa geopotential height,precipitation,and 2 m air temperature were tested by the cross validation and root mean square error methods.Results indicate that the model shows a good performance of 500 hPa geopotential height in the tropical region,oceans and parts of Eurasia.The simulation of precipitation over the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River and most parts of South China has considerable reliability.The correlation coefficients of the 2 m air temperature anomalies in most parts of northern China are positive and pass the local significance test at 90% confidence level.However,the results in southern China are needed to be improved.Meanwhile,the ensemble forecast is much better than the single-sample prediction.The forecasting results can be improved by using the higher resolution atmospheric general circulation model.

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  • 收稿日期:2011-03-26
  • 最后修改日期:2012-12-12
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