基于深度学习的中国地面气温的多模式集成预报研究
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国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(41575104)


Multimodel ensemble forecasts of surface air temperature over China based on deep learning approach
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    基于TIGGE资料中的欧洲中期天气预报中心、英国气象局、美国国家环境预报中心、韩国气象厅和日本气象厅2015年1月1日-9月30日中国及周边地区地面2 m气温24~168 h集合预报资料,利用长短期记忆神经网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)、浅层神经网络(Neural Networks,NN)、滑动训练期消除偏差集合平均(BREM)和滑动训练期多模式超级集合(SUP)方法对2015年9月5-30日26 d预报期进行集成预报试验。结果表明,BREM对5个单模式进行等权集成,预报结果易受预报效果较差模式的影响,整体预报技巧略低于单个最优模式ECMWF的预报技巧。其中在新疆南部,等权集成后的预报技巧更低。SUP的预报结果比所有单个模式预报更为准确。在144 h之前,SUP的误差明显小于ECMWF的预报误差,但随预报时效增加,误差增长幅度增大。NN对地面气温的预报效果与SUP的预报效果相当。LSTM整体预报效果最好,特别是在预报时效较长(超过72 h)时,比其他方法预报准确率明显提高。LSTM神经网络方法明显改进了我国西北、华北、东北、西南和华南大部分地区的气温预报,但在南疆部分地区误差较大。

    Abstract:

    Based on the 1-7 days ensemble forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF),US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP),and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA),the UK Met Office (UKMO) as well as the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) in the TIGGE datasets,the multimodel ensemble forecasts of the surface air temperature in China and its adjacent area during the period from 1 January to 30 September 2015 were conducted by using long-term memory (LSTM) neural networks,neural networks (NN),bias-removed ensemble mean (BREM) and the superensemble (SUP) with sliding training period for the forecast period from September 5 to 30,2015.The results showed that the BREM forecast was no better than the ECMWF forecast due to the impact of low skill model forecasts among the five models.The forecast skill of SUP was better than that of all the single models.For 24-144h forecasts,the root mean square error (RMSE) of SUP was significantly smaller than that of ECMWF forecast.As the forecast lead-time increased,the RMSE increased as well.The forecast skill of NN was roughly equivalent to that of SUP.Overall,the LSTM approach showed the best forecast performance,especially when the forecast lead-time was longer than 72 h,the RMSE of the LSTM forecast was considerably smaller than that of ECMWF,BREM,NN,and SUP forecasts.The LSTM neural networks approach significantly reduced the forecast RMSE of the surface air temperature in the northwestern,northern,northeastern,southwestern,and southern China.However,the RMSE of the LSTM forecast was relatively larger in southern Xinjiang area compared with ECMWF forecast.

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智协飞,王田,季焱,2020.基于深度学习的中国地面气温的多模式集成预报研究[J].大气科学学报,43(3):435-446. ZHI Xiefei, WANG Tian, JI Yan,2020. Multimodel ensemble forecasts of surface air temperature over China based on deep learning approach[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,43(3):435-446. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20200219003

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-19
  • 最后修改日期:2020-04-01
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-07-01
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