全球变暖、AMO、IPO对全球陆地降水变化的相对贡献
投稿时间:2020-02-20  修订日期:2020-04-25  点此下载全文
引用本文:
摘要点击次数: 34
全文下载次数: 0
作者单位E-mail
陶丽 南京信息工程大学 taoli@nuist.edu.cn 
蔡琳 南京信息工程大学  
赵久伟 韩国浦项科技大学环境科学与工程部  
张梦 南京信息工程大学  
中文摘要:本文探究了1934-2015年期间不同海洋模态对6-8月和12-2月全球陆地降水的趋势以及年代际变化的相对贡献。首先对热带地区陆地降水和海温进行SVD分析,得到影响热带陆地降水的海温趋势和年代际变化主要的海洋模态为:全球变暖(global Ocean Warming)、AMO(Atlantic multidecadal oscillation)和IPO(Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation)。其次利用多元线性回归模型进一步定量评估了全球变暖趋势、AMO和IPO对全球陆地降水的相对贡献大小。结果表明,全球变暖趋势对全球陆地降水变化的贡献在冬夏季都是最大的,6-8月,AMO的贡献次之。12-2月,IPO的贡献次之。不同纬度带,三者的贡献不同。6-8月份期间,全球变暖趋势、AMO和IPO对降水变化的贡献在10S-10N、50N-60N 和40S-50S这三个狭窄的纬度带内大致相同,其他区域表现为全球变暖趋势和AMO主导。12-2月份期间,IPO对20S-40N范围内的降水变化起到主导作用,其它区域则以趋势为主导。从不同大洲来看,6-8月期间,非洲、北美降水变化主要与全球变暖趋势和AMO相关,南美洲、欧洲降水变化受到AMO的影响最大,澳洲降水变化受到AMO和IPO影响最大,亚洲降水变化主要表现与全球变暖趋势相关。12-2月期间,非洲、北美洲、澳洲降水主要与全球变暖趋势和IPO相关,南美洲、欧洲、亚洲降水变化主要表现为与全球变暖趋势相关。进一步利用信息流的方法,探究了全球变暖、AMO和IPO与陆地降水变化之间的因果关系,验证了上述结论。
中文关键词:陆地降水  全球变暖  大西洋多年代际振荡  太平洋年代际振荡  相对贡献
 
Relative Contributions of Global Warming, AMO and IPO to the Changes of Land Precipitation
Abstract:In this study, we explored the relative contribution of ocean modes to the changes of JJA and DJF land precipitation over globe during 1934-2015. By performing SVD analysis upon the tropical land precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST), we identify three dominant ocean modes: global ocean warming (OW), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which effect the trend/interdecadal variation of land precipitation. Using linear multi regression method, we quantitatively assess the relative contribution of OW, AMO and IPO to the land precipitation variation in different regions. Our results show that the OW contributes most to global rainfall changes no matter in JJA or DJF season. AMO (IPO) is the second dominant contributor to the interdecadal/decadal changes of global land precipitation in JJA (DJF). The contribution of OW, AMO and IPO to land precipitation are equivalent in latitude bands: 10S-10N, 50N-60N and 40S-50S in JJA. Beyond these latitude belts, OW and AMO are the two dominant contributors in JJA. In DJF, IPO play a dominant role in latitude band: 20S-40N. Beyond 20S-40N, OW play a dominant role to the land precipitation changes. During JJA, the OW and AMO contribute most to the changes of land precipitation in Africa and North America, the AMO contributes most to the changes of precipitation in South America and Europe, precipitation over Australia is mostly affected by AMO and IPO, precipitation over Asia is mostly affected by OW. During DJF, the precipitation over Africa, North America and Australia are mostly affected by OW and IPO, the precipitation over South America, Europe and Asia are mostly affected by OW. Information flow method was applied to investigate the causal relationship between land rainfall and SST variation and further verify the above conclusions.
keywords:Land precipitation, Ocean modes, Relative contribution, Information flow
  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器