中央气象台台风预报业务的发展及思考
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

国家自然基金资助项目(41775048);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-139)


The development and consideration of typhoon forecast operation of National Meteorological Center
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    随着数值预报技术和综合探测体系的不断进步和完善,近十几年来中央气象台的台风业务预报取得了较显著的进展,特别是台风路径业务预报水平进展显著,基本达到了国际先进水平,但是在台风强度和风雨影响的预报及台风风险评估方面进展相对较慢。本文从我国台风灾害影响的严重性和中央气象台台风预报的重要性、中央气象台台风预报的发展历程、中央气象台台风预报员的作用、台风业务中重大科学问题的提出和解决途径、重大台风科研项目对中央气象台台风业务的促进和指导等几方面进行了回顾和分析,并提出了未来提高台风业务预报能力的有效途径。

    Abstract:

    With the continuous progress and improvement of numerical prediction technology and comprehensive detection system,the typhoon operational prediction of the Central Meteorological Center has made remarkable progress in the past decade,especially the operational prediction level of typhoon track,which has basically reached the international advanced level,but the progress in the prediction of typhoon intensity,wind and rain impact and typhoon risk assessment is relatively slow.This paper reviews the severity of typhoon disaster in China,the importance of Typhoon Forecast in the Central Meteorological Center,the development of Typhoon Forecast of CMC,the role of typhoon forecaster in CMC,the proposal and solution of major scientific problems in typhoon operation,and the promotion and guidance of major scientific research projects for typhoon operation in CMC.Some effective ways to improve the operational typhoon forecast ability in the future are put forward.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

李泽椿,张玲,钱奇峰,麻素红,徐晶,代刊,谌芸,王月冬,2020.中央气象台台风预报业务的发展及思考[J].大气科学学报,43(1):10-19. LI Zechun, ZHANG Ling, QIAN Qifeng, MA Suhong, XU Jing, DAI Kan, CHEN Yun, WANG Yuedong,2020. The development and consideration of typhoon forecast operation of National Meteorological Center[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,43(1):10-19. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20200110015

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2020-01-10
  • 最后修改日期:2020-01-20
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2020-04-30
  • 出版日期:

地址:江苏南京宁六路219号南京信息工程大学    邮编:210044

联系电话:025-58731158    E-mail:xbbjb@nuist.edu.cn    QQ交流群号:344646895

大气科学学报 ® 2024 版权所有  技术支持:北京勤云科技发展有限公司