CMIP5模式对太阳活动准11年周期激发类拉尼娜型海温的评估
投稿时间:2019-12-30  修订日期:2020-02-11  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
罗无边 南京信息工程大学 地球系统模式中心与气候动力学中心 Wubian.Luo.nuist@outlook.com 
刘飞 南京信息工程大学 地球系统模式中心与气候动力学中心 liuf@nuist.edu.cn 
陶丽 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室  
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
中文摘要:利用24个第五次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)历史试验资料,本文评估了模式对太阳年代际尺度准11年周期变化能否激发出热带太平洋显著的类拉尼娜型海表温度异常的模拟能力。再分析资料分析结果表明,“自下而上”机制解释了在太阳强迫偏强的年份,热带太平洋更容易呈现出显著的类拉尼娜型海温异常。CMIP5模式的评估结果显示,有2/5的模式可以基本再现再分析资料中太阳强强迫影响下的热带东太平洋海温负异常,这些模式分为类拉尼娜组;而另有3/5的模式模拟出了相反的信号,分为类厄尔尼诺组。为了进一步探讨CMIP5模式模拟能力不同的原因,本文分析了“自下而上”机制在模式中的表现。“自下而上”机制可分为蒸发过程和海洋恒温(thermostat)过程。结果表明,模式能否模拟出类拉尼娜型海温响应取决于thermostat过程的强弱,其中类拉尼娜组的thermostat过程更强;而蒸发过程没有起到关键作用。
中文关键词:准11年太阳强迫、类拉尼娜响应、thermostat机制、热带太平洋
 
nfluence of the 11-year solar cycle on the tropical Pacific SST anomalies in CMIP5 simulations
Abstract:Based on the historical experiment from 24 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5), this paper evaluates the ability of models to simulate the observed significant La Ni?a-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific, which is stimulated by quasi-11-year solar cycle. By analyzing reanalysis data, the “bottom-up” mechanism explaines that the significant La Ni?a-like SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific is more likely to happen in years with high solar activity. The results illustrates that two fifth of the CMIP5 models can well demonstrate the negative SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific during the high solar forcing, which are segmented into La Ni?a-like group. While another three fifth of the models can even simulate the opposite signal, which are called El Ni?o-like group. In order to explore the different simulation capabilities of the CMIP5 models, this paper analyzes the "bottom-up" mechanism in the model. The "bottom-up" mechanism is divided into two processes: evaporation process and thermostat process. The results showed that whether the models can simulate the La Ni?a-like SST response depends on the strength of the thermostat process. The thermostat process in La Ni?a-like group is stronger. However, the evaporation process is not a key factor.
keywords:Quasi-11-year solar cycle  La Ni?a-like response  Thermostat mechanism  Tropical Pacific
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