一次江淮暴雨高分辨数值预报中云微物理方案敏感性分析
投稿时间:2019-12-18  修订日期:2020-01-12  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
马旭林 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院 xulinma@nuist.edu.cn 
孟泽华 南京信息工程大学  
高彦青 南京信息工程大学  
基金项目:国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)
中文摘要:利用全可压非静力的WRF(ver3.9)中尺度预报模式,选取Lin、WSM3、WSM5、WSM6、Goddard五种云微物理方案化和Kain-Fritsch积云对流参数方案,对2017年6月10日江淮地区的暴雨过程进行了高分辨数值模拟试验,在分析各云微物理方案对降水模拟能力的基础上,重点研究了云微物理方案对强降水模拟差异的敏感性。试验结果表明:Lin方案模拟的局地暴雨区降水量随时间的演变与实况较为吻合,但降雨量偏小;WSM5、WSM6和Goddard方案模拟的降水量级与实况更为吻合。不同云微物理过程对此次江淮暴雨的模拟能力具有明显差异,雨量小的区域模拟效果基本一致,暴雨和大暴雨对云微物理过程的变化更加敏感。云中水成物的三维结构特征差异明显,其水成物含量也显著不同。 WSM5方案模拟的雨水和云水含量都较高,且降水量和落区质量较好;不同微物理方案造成明显的垂直速度差异,进而导致上空云量、云高有所差异,对降水过程模拟性能的优劣也有影响,这就充分反映出选用更为敏感的微物理方案对降水预报的重要性。
中文关键词:数值模拟,WRF模式,江淮暴雨,云微物理方案,敏感性分析
 
Sensitivity analysis of different Cloud Microphysical Schemes in high resolution numerical forecast on the simulation of a heavy rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin
Abstract:Five different cloud microphysical process parameterization schemes in mesoscale numerical model WRF3.9 are used to simulate a heavy rainfall process in Yangtze River Basin from June 9 to 10, 2017, and the influence of different cloud microphysical schemes on Yangtze River Basin rainstorm simulation is discussed. The experiments in this paper show that the rainstorm process is more sensitive to the changes of cloud microphysical processes than the precipitation process with small to heavy rain. The variation trend of precipitation simulated by Lin scheme with time is consistent with the actual situation, but the precipitation is obviously low. The best overall effect is the WSM5 scheme, which is better than other schemes in simulating precipitation and precipitation range. The worst is the Goddard plan. The structural evolution characteristics of water-borne objects in the cloud show that the content of rainwater, cloud water, snow and ice water in the well simulated WSM5 scheme is more, and the evolution with time is consistent with the change of ground precipitation intensity. In addition, the difference in vertical velocity caused by different microphysical schemes can lead to the difference in cloud cover and cloud height over the precipitation area, thus affecting the simulation performance of the model for the precipitation process.
keywords:Numerical simulation, WRF model, Heavy Rain, Cloud microphysical scheme, sensitivity analysis
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