气候变化背景下1961-2017年北京市短历时暴雨特征及暴雨雨型研究
投稿时间:2019-11-29  修订日期:2020-04-01  点此下载全文
引用本文:
摘要点击次数: 50
全文下载次数: 0
作者单位E-mail
袁冯 北京建筑大学 yuanfeng0811@163.com 
张君枝 北京建筑大学  
王冀 北京市气候中心 wangji_zl@163.com 
中文摘要:利用1961-2017年北京观象台站逐分钟降雨资料,根据《城市暴雨强度公式编制和设计暴雨雨型确定技术导则》,建立了北京市1961-1990年和1991-2017年两个气候态下的暴雨强度公式和重现期2 a、5 a和10a下历时30 min、60 min、90 min、120 min、150 min、180 min以5 min为时间段的设计暴雨雨型。结果表明:(1)根据年最大值法,采用P-Ⅲ型分布曲线对北京市两个气候态下各历时降雨量的拟合效果最好,暴雨强度公式精度最高。(2)对比1961-1990年和1991-2017年暴雨强度公式,整体来看后者各历时重现期的暴雨强度值较低,随着重现期的增大,两者的雨强差值幅度也增大。(3)1961-1990年和1991-2017年短历时暴雨雨峰位置系数分别为0.436和0.382,重现期2 a、5 a和10 a下各历时雨峰位置前者比后者提前,各历时累计降雨均在初期增长较慢,雨峰前后增长速度较快,之后增速明显减缓。
中文关键词:气候变化  短历时暴雨  暴雨公式  暴雨雨型  北京
 
Research on Short Duration Rainstorm Characteristics and Rainstorm Pattern Under Climate Change in Beijing
Abstract:Based on the minute-by-minute rainfall data of Beijing Observatory Station from 1961 to 2017, according to the “Technical Guidelines for the Establishment and Design of Rainstorm Types for Urban Storm Intensity Formulas”, the two two climate states of 1961-1990 and 1991-2017 were established in Beijing. The rainstorm intensity formula and the design rainstorm type of the period of 30 min, 60 min, 90 min, 120 min, 150 min, and 180 min in the return period of 2, 5, and 10a for 5 min. The results show that: (1) According to the annual maximum method, the P-III distribution curve has the best fitting effect on the rainfall duration of the two climatic conditions in Beijing, and the storm intensity formula has the highest precision. (2) Comparing the storm intensity formulas of 1961-1990 and 1991-2017, the rainstorm intensity of the latter in rich return period is relatively low. As the return period increases, the magnitude of the difference in rain intensity increases. (3) In 1961-1990 and 1991-2017, the location coefficients of short duration rainstorm peaks were 0.436 and 0.382, respectively. Under the return periods of 2 a, 5 a and 10 a, the positions of the rain peaks were earlier than those of the latter. The cumulative rainfall in each period increased slowly at the initial stage, and the growth rate was faster before and after the rain peak, and then slowed down obviously.
keywords:climate change  short duration storm  rainstorm formula  rainstorm pattern  Beijing
  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器