1948—2015年北半球平流层爆发性增温的统计特征和月际环流差异
投稿时间:2018-01-13  修订日期:2018-03-05  点此下载全文
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王华曌 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044
南京大学 大气科学学院, 江苏 南京 210023 
 
饶建 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044 raojian@nuist.edu.cn 
生宸 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044
中国科学院 大气物理研究所大气科学与地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029
中国科学院大学, 北京 100049 
 
王博 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044
甘肃省古浪县气象局, 甘肃 武威 733100 
 
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602104);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41705024;41575041);南京信息工程大学科研启动经费(2016r060)
中文摘要:利用NCEP/NCAR第1套再分析资料,分析过去68 a(1948—2015年)平流层爆发性增温(Stratospheric Sudden Warming,SSW)频次、强度和环流特征的月际差异。统计结果表明:1948—2015年北半球共发生30次SSW,其集中发生在11—3月,而1—2月发生频次尤为集中,且SSW发生频次表现出显著的年代际变化特征。11—12月SSW比1—3月SSW的持续时间长。而3月SSW事件的强度最弱,持续时间最短。1月和3月SSW纬向平均信号下传得较深,而11月、12月和2月的环流信号仅能传到200 hPa。11—3月SSW爆发前1~2周500 hPa均观测到西太平洋遥相关型(Western Pacific,WP)的负位相;太平洋-北美遥相关型(Pacific-North America,PNA)的正位相仅仅出现在11月、12月和3月SSW爆发前。SSW爆发后1~2周,仅有11月、1月和3月的事件对应着负位相的北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)。
中文关键词:平流层爆发性增温  月际  频次  强度  环流型
 
Statistical characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming and its seasonality during 1948—2015
Abstract:Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data I,the differences in frequency,intensity and related circulation patterns of stratospheric sudden warmings(SSWs) during the past 68 years(1948-2015) were compared.The statistical results showed that 30 SSWs occurred from 1948 to 2015 mainly in cold months from November to March.SSWs occurred more frequently in January and February than in other cold months.In addition,the frequency of SSWs was different from decade to decade.The composite results showed that SSWs in November and December lasted for a longer time than those during January and March.SSWs in March were much weaker and lasted for a shorter period than those in other cold months.The parallel comparison results indicated that the zonal mean signals associated with SSWs in January and March extended downward deeper than those in November,December,and February.The zonal mean signals in November,December,and February could only reach 200 hPa.A negative Western Pacific(WP) pattern was observed one or two weeks before SSWs in all cold months.However,a positive Pacific-North America(PNA) pattern only appeared before SSWs in November,December,and March.Moreover,a negative North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) pattern was observed one or two weeks after SSWs in November,January,and March.
keywords:Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW)  seasonality  frequency  intensity  circulation pattern
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