基于全球及区域气候模式的江苏省降水变化趋势预估
投稿时间:2018-03-16  修订日期:2018-07-15  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
李熠 江苏省气象科学研究所, 江苏 南京 210009
中国气象局 交通气象重点开放实验室, 江苏 南京 210009 
judyliyi@sohu.com 
买苗 江苏省气候中心, 江苏 南京 210009  
基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201318);江苏省自然科学基金青年基金项目(BK20171094)
中文摘要:利用气象观测资料,8个全球耦合气候系统模式的集合平均以及区域气候模式(RegCM4)的结果,通过方差分析、相关分析、趋势分析、扰动法等方法对模式性能进行了评估,并对江苏省在未来RCP8.5高端排放情景下降水的变化趋势进行了预估。结果表明,在RCP8.5情景下,至2020、2030和2050年,全球模式模拟的江苏省年平均降水在未来有逐渐增加的趋势,线性增加率约为7 mm/(10 a)。至2050年,江苏省年平均降水量将增加2%左右;区域模式模拟的年平均降水在未来线性增加率为1.5 mm/(10 a),变化不显著。区域模式模拟的夏季降水在未来有所增加,最多可增加20%~30%,但增幅随时间逐渐减小;全球模式模拟的夏季降水比现在有所减少,至2050年,减少了大约10%。区域模式模拟的冬季降水在未来不同时间段均比现在有所减少,同现在相比,最多可减少30%~40%;而全球模式模拟的冬季降水在未来则是先减少,后增加,至2050年,比现在大约增加10%。对于不同季节,总体而言,南部地区降水量的变化较北部地区显著。对于极端降水事件来说,江苏省未来小雨日数将减少,而暴雨日数则微弱增加。但由于全球模式本身的性能、区域模式对全球模式的依赖性以及温室气体排放的不确定性使上述预估结果仍具有不确定性。
中文关键词:多区域模式集合  降水  未来预估
 
Projection of precipitation over Jiangsu Province based on global and regional climate models
Abstract:In this study,based on the observational data and simulations of eight coupled climate models ensemble and regional climate model(RegCM4),the performance of models are evaluated by means of the methods of variance analysis,correlation analysis,trend analysis and perturbation,and the precipitation change in Jiangsu Province in the future is projected under the scenario of RCP8.5.The study results show that the annual mean precipitation of Jiangsu Province will gradually increase in the future,and the linear increase rate is about 7 mm/(10 a) in the global model simulation,and 1.5 mm/(10 a) in the regional model simulation.The annual mean precipitation in Jiangsu Province will increase by about 2% by 2050,but the change in the regional model simulation is not significant.According to the regional model simulation,the summer precipitation will increase in the future,by up to 20%-30%,but the rate of increase will decrease with time.In the global model simulation,the summer precipitation will have decreased by about 10% by 2050 compared with that at present.The winter precipitation in the regional model simulation will have decreased in different periods in the future,and may be reduced by about 30%-40% compared with that at present.The winter precipitation in the global model simulation in the future will first be reduced,then increased,and by 2050 it will be about 10% higher than that today.For different seasons,the precipitation change in the southern region is more remarkable than that in the northern region.In the case of extreme precipitation,the light rain days in Jiangsu Province decrease,mainly in the southern region,while the heavy rain days increase slightly,but not significantly.However,due to the performance of the global models themselves,the dependence of the regional models on the global models,and the uncertainty of greenhouse gas emissions,the projected results remain uncertain.More global and regional models and further tests are needed in the future to reduce the uncertainty of the projections.
keywords:multiple regional climate models  precipitation  projection
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