CMIP5模式对AMO与PDO模拟评估及未来预估
投稿时间:2019-02-27  修订日期:2019-03-15  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
宋晗 南京信息工程大学 15850733910@163.com 
刘鹏 南京信息工程大学 liupeng1998@nuist.edu.cn 
陶丽 南京信息工程大学  
基金项目:国家重点研发计划;国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划);国家杰出青年科学基金
中文摘要:利用1880-2009年观测海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)资料,耦合模式比较计划的第五阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5,CMIP5)模式中4种情景试验(piControl、historical、RCP2.6、RCP4.5)下的模拟资料,通过对比以上资料,分别评估CMIP5模式对两个最为重要年代际尺度模态,北大西洋年代际振荡(Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO)、太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)的模拟性能,并分析了在不同增暖情景下,这两个海洋年代际模态的变化特征。得到以下结论:在historical和piControl情景中,多模式集合可以再现北太平洋、东太平洋和北大西洋的海表温度年代际变化中心,但对AMO和PDO的模拟中,两种模态的振幅都偏弱,特别是PDO模态在东太平洋强度的再现能力较弱。与观测相比historical情景下对AMO和PDO时空特征模拟较好的模式有:CESM1-CAM5、FGOALS-g2、GISS-E2-H-CC、MIROC5、NorESM1-ME,多模式集合有更好的模拟能力。在不同增暖情景下,AMO与PDO空间特征基本保持一致,振幅大小差异随增暖变化不明显,但是伴随全球增暖加强,两模态都出现了方差贡献减小的特征,尤其是AMO模态更为明显,为我们进一步认识在增暖情景下两种年代际模态的变化特征提供了研究的新线索。
中文关键词:CMIP5  AMO  PDO  SST  全球增暖
 
Evaluation and future projection of AMO and PDO in CMIP5 models
Abstract:Based on the observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1880-2009 and the simulation SST datasets under four scenario (piControl, historical, RCP2.6, RCP4.5) in the CMIP5 models, we evaluated the simulation capabilities of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in CMIP5 models and further investigated their future projection under different warming scenarios. The results showed that that the multi-model ensemble can reproduce the interdecadal temperature center of sea surface temperature in the North Pacific, East Pacific, and North Atlantic in the historical and piControl scenarios, but the amplitudes of the two modes are weak in the simulation. Especially, the PDO mode has a weaker reproducibility in the East Pacific. By evaluating the spatial and temporal characteristics of AMO and PDO of in historical scenario , we ranked the ability of models in simulation AMO and PDO and suggested CESM1-CAM5, FGOALS-g2, GISS-E2-H-CC, MIROC5, NorESM1-ME are five better models. The multi-model ensemble is best. Under different warming scenarios, the spatial characteristics of AMO and PDO are basically the same, and the amplitude difference is not obvious in different warming scenarios. However, with the increase of global warming, the two modes have the characteristics of reduced variance contribution, especially for AMO mode. The above analysis provides us some new clues for further understanding of the changing the two interdecadal modes under the warming scenario.
keywords:CMIP5  AMO  PDO  SST  global warming
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