2018年7月北半球极端天气气候事件及环流特征分析
投稿时间:2018-11-29  修订日期:2018-12-11  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
王倩 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室 wangqian20180307@163.com 
翟盘茂 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室 pmzhai@cma.gov.cn 
余荣 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室  
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507700)
中文摘要:2018年7月北半球天气气候显著异常,极端事件高发。欧洲大部、北非、东亚以及北美的大部分地区均遭受严重的高温热浪侵袭;印度南部和北部、东南亚、中国西南部以及日本西部等地极端降水频发;西太平洋台风活动异常活跃,移动路径偏北。初步诊断结果表明,北半球中高纬度,由低层到高层稳定维持的异常高压系统是导致北半球中高纬度大部分地区高温热浪持续发生的直接原因。其中,异常偏强、偏北的副热带高压,以及增强、东伸的南亚高压与东亚地区持续高温和极端降水事件直接相关;低层菲律宾周围异常活跃的对流活动和强盛的西南水汽输送共同导致南亚、东南亚地区极端降水发生。此外,热带太平洋大部分地区偏暖的海温条件和菲律宾附近异常气旋性环流则与异常活跃的台风活动有关联。需要关注的是,北半球尤其是东亚地区大气环流的异常主要受海洋表面热力状况以及其他区域大气环流遥相关的影响。另外,2018年7月份北半球极端天气气候事件与全球气候变化的联系问题,值得进一步研究。
中文关键词:极端事件  高温热浪  极端降水  台风  大气环流  遥相关
 
Analysis of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Circulation Characteristics in the Northern Hemisphere in July 2018
Abstract:In July 2018, the weather and climate in the northern hemisphere were significantly abnormal, and extreme events occurred frequently. Most of Europe, North Africa, East Asia and most parts of North America were affected by severe heat waves. Extreme precipitation occurred frequently in southern and northern India, Southeast Asia, southwestern China, and western Japan. The tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific was extremely active and the movement path was northerly. The preliminary diagnosis results show that the abnormal high-pressure system maintained from the low level to the upper level is the direct cause of the heat wave in the middle and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The enhanced and northward subtropical high and the enhanced and eastward South Asian high are directly related to persistent high temperatures and extreme precipitation events in East Asia. The extremely active convective around the low-level Philippines and the strong southwest water vapor transport have led to extreme precipitation in South Asia and Southeast Asia. In addition, the warmer sea surface temperature conditions in most parts of the tropical Pacific and the abnormal cyclonic circulation near the Philippines are associated with unusually active typhoon activities. It is important to note that the anomalies of the atmospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere, especially in East Asia, are mainly affected by the thermal conditions of the ocean surface and the teleconnection of atmospheric circulation in other regions. Noticeably, the linkage between large scale extreme events in July 2018 and climate change is worthy of further study.
keywords:extreme events  heat waves  extreme precipitation  typhoons  atmospheric circulation  teleconnection
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