集合预报风场扰动的物理结构及演变特征
投稿时间:2018-09-08  修订日期:2018-11-01  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
马旭林 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院 xulinma@nuist.edu.cn 
张瑜 南京信息工程大学  
周勃旸 中国民用航空青岛空中交通管理站  
时洋 广东省气象台  
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)
中文摘要:合理的初始扰动结构是确保集合预报扰动质量的核心,初始扰动质量的好坏直接影响到集合预报的质量和整体性能。本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心、我国T639全球集合预报系统以及GRAPES区域集合预报系统的预报场,通过分析初始扰动分量、集合离散度、扰动能量演变,揭示了三套集合预报风场扰动的物理结构及演变特征。结果表明:绝大部分初始扰动位于主要天气系统附近,并且扰动具有流依赖特征;集合离散度与扰动能量随着预报时效的延长都呈现出合理发展的状态,低层以扰动内能为主,高层以扰动动能为主,且扰动动能在演化过程中占主导作用;离散度结构的演变同样与天气形势的演变密切相关,从另一种角度体现了扰动结构随流型依赖的特性。
中文关键词:集合预报,初始扰动,离散度结构
 
The physical structures and evolution characteristics of wind perturbation in ensemble prediction
Abstract:The proper initial perturbation structure is the core of constructing ensemble prediction, and the quality of initial perturbation directly affects the quality and overall performance of ensemble forecasting. Based on the prediction field of the ECMWF, the T639 global ensemble forecast system in China and the GRAPES regional ensemble forecast system, the physical structure and evolution characteristics of wind perturbation in three sets of ensemble forecast are revealed by analyzing the initial disturbance component, the structure of ensemble spread and the evolution of the perturbation energy. The results show that most of the initial perturbation are located near the main weather systems, and the perturbation has the characteristics of flow-dependence; the ensemble spread and the Total Perturbation Energy present a developing state over forecast hours, the lower atmosphere is dominated by the Internal Perturbation Energy, and the higher is dominated by the Kinetic Perturbation Energy, and the Kinetic Perturbation Energy is dominated in the evolution process. The evolution of the ensemble spread is also closely related to the evolution of the weather situation. It reflected the dependence of the perturbation structure on the flow pattern from another angle.
keywords:ensemble forecast, initial perturbation, ensemble spread, physical structure
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