热带北大西洋海温异常对南海夏季风的影响及机理
投稿时间:2018-08-31  修订日期:2018-09-20  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
徐集云 浙江省气候中心 ZJCC@QQ.COM 
霍利微 南京信息工程大学 huolw@nuist.edu.cn 
宋超辉 浙江省气候中心  
刘樱 浙江省气候中心  
陈君芝 南京信息工程大学  
中文摘要:本文利用HadiSST资料、CMAP降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了热带北大西洋(NTA)SSTA和南海夏季风(SCSSM)的联系及可能机制。观测分析表明,夏季NTA SSTA和SCSSM存在稳健的正相关关系,NTA SSTA正异常可引起北半球副热带东太平洋至大西洋区域气旋式环流异常,有利于热带大西洋(热带中太平洋)地区异常上升(下沉)运动,使得西北太平洋地区反气旋环流异常,该反气旋环流异常西侧的南风异常则增强了SCSSM。利用春季NTA指数、东南印度洋海温异常指数、北太平洋海温异常指数、南太平洋经向模(SPOMD)及Ni駉3.4指数构建的SCSSM季节预测模型,可以较好地预测SCSSM。
中文关键词:热带北大西洋,海温异常,南海夏季风,机制
 
Influence of Tropical North Atlantic Anomalous SST on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon and Related Mechanism
Abstract:This paper analyzes the connection and possible mechanism between the tropical North Atlantic (NTA) SSTA and the South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM) by using HadiSST data, CMAP precipitation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The observation analysis shows that there is a strong positive correlation between NTA SSTA and SCSSM in summer, and the anomalous NTA SSTA can cause cyclonic circulation anomalies in the northern hemisphere subtropical East Pacific to Atlantic region, which is conducive to abnormal rise (sinking) in the tropical Atlantic (tropical central Pacific) region. The movement caused the anomalous anticyclone circulation in the western Pacific Ocean, and the south wind anomaly on the west side of the anticyclone circulation anomaly enhance the SCSSM. The SCSSM can be better predicted by using the spring NTA index, the southeast Indian Ocean temperature anomaly index, the north Pacific sea temperature anomaly index, the south Pacific region (SPOMD) and the SCSSM seasonal forecast model built by the Nino3.4 index.
keywords:tropical North Atlantic (NTA), anomalous sea surface temperature,South China Sea summer monsoon,mechanism
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