北太平洋海温Victoria模态与ENSO年际关系的非对称特征
投稿时间:2018-07-19  修订日期:2018-09-30  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
祁莉 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院 qili@nuist.edu.cn 
毛欣 南京信息工程大学  
张文君 南京信息工程大学  
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41475086)、长江学者和创新团队发展计划资助(PCSIRT)、江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
中文摘要:研究利用美国NOAA的海表温度资料,重点分析了北太平洋海温异常EOF第二模态Victoria模态(VM)和ENSO年际关系的非对称特征。研究发现,VM和ENSO在年代际时间尺度上相关性较弱,而在年际上有很好的相关关系,两者同期为负相关,VM超前1年为正相关。然而,正负VM事件与ENSO冷暖位相在年际尺度上的联系存在着一定的非对称性。正VM事件与同年冬季热带中东太平洋海温异常的联系较弱,但次年常有厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)事件发生;相比较而言,负VM事件在同年一般都有厄尔尼诺事件伴随发生,而与次年冬季热带中东太平洋海温没有显著联系,且很少有ENSO事件发生。由此可见,正VM事件对次年厄尔尼诺的发生发展似乎有促进作用,可作为ENSO前期预报因子之一,而负VM事件不能作为ENSO的前期预报因子。
中文关键词:北太平洋海温,Victoria模态,ENSO,非对称性
 
Asymmetric characteristics of the interannual relationship between ENSO and Victoria mode in the North Pacific sea surface temperature
Abstract:Based on the sea surface temperature data from NOAA in USA, asymmetric characteristics of interannual relationship between ENSO and Victoria modes (VM; EOF2 of North Pacific SST anomalies in winter (DJF)) are analyzed emphatically. The results showed the correlation between VM and ENSO was weak on the decadal scale, but strong on the interannual scale. VM had significant negative correlation with ENSO in the same year, and had strong positive correlation with ENSO in the following year. However, there is a certain asymmetry between the positive and negative VM events and ENSO warm and cold phases in interannual scale. The relationship between the positive VM events and the SST anomalies in the tropical central and eastern Pacific in the same winter is weak, but El Ni?o events often occur in the following year. In contrast, negative VM events are usually accompanied by El Ni?o events in the same year, but there is no significant relationship between the negative VM events and the SST of the tropical central and eastern Pacific in the following winter, and there are very few ENSO events occurring in the same year. It can be seen that the positive VM event seems to promote the occurrence and development of El Ni?o in the next year and can be used as one of the early prediction factors of ENSO, while the negative VM event can not be used as the early prediction factor of ENSO
keywords:The North Pacific SST, Victoria modes, ENSO, asymmetry
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