投稿时间:2018-04-14  修订日期:2018-05-11  点此下载全文
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于天雷 南京信息工程大学 
程军 南京信息工程大学 
郭品文 南京信息工程大学  
The evaluation and error analysis of TraCE-21ka
Abstract:TraCE-21ka is the first transient simulation about the climatic evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to Present Day (PD) using fully coupled climate model in the world. This paper utilizes the PD observational data and the reconstructed permafrost data during LGM and Mid-Holocene (MH) to evaluate the performance of TraCE-21ka. The results show TraCE-21ka can well simulate the spatial pattern of large-scale circulation and precipitation during PD period. For East Asia, its simulation is satisfactory in winter while deficient in summer. Moreover, the TraCE-21ka simulated north hemispheric surface temperature is much colder than observation (about 3-4°C in average). The analyses based on PD temperature error suggest that TraCE-21ka may not well reproduce the evolution of East Asian climate. For historical periods, the reconstructed continuous permafrost boundaries indicate that the Eurasia is warmer (colder) in TraCE-21ka than reality during LGM (MH) period, which means TraCE-21ka underestimates the amplitude of climate change. The underestimation of climate change can be attributed to the lower climate sensitivity of TraCE-21ka comparing to the real world. Our results are not only helpful for further comparison between TraCE-21ka and geological proxy data, but also provide reference for analyzing other paleoclimate transient simulation results.
keywords:paleoclimate transient modeling, TraCE-21ka, model evaluation, permafrost
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