Abstract:Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of four times one day and the daily weather observation data with 200 stations in the Northeast China from 1961 to 2014,this paper analysed the climatic characteristics of heavy rain that caused by northeast cold vortex,and the effects of low-level jet and shear on cold vortex heavy rain.Diagnosed and analyzed physical parameters such as specific humidity,water vapor flux,water vapor flux divergence,divergence,vertical velocity,and K index,which can characterize the conditions of water vapor,dynamic conditions,and thermal instability in the process of heavy rain caused by northeast cold vortex.It summarized the thresholds that need to be met for the above physical parameters in the heavy rain caused by northeast cold vortex.A forecasting model for the "ingredients method" of the heavy rain that caused by northeast cold vortex was constructed by using the ingredient factors of physical parameter threshold indicators and low-level jet and shear.Using the numerical prediction products which provided by ECWMF model and T639 model,the cold vortex heavy rain ingredient model was applied to daily forecast work.For the sake of examining the applicability of the ingredients method model,the quality of the heavy rain forecast was tested from 2015 to 2016,and the performance evaluation had been done.The results show that there is 66% possibility of leading to heavy rain by the Northeast China cold vortex activities.The times of heavy rain caused by cold vortex were more in July and August than other months.The low-level jet and the shear at lower in tropospheric could trigger rainstorm,there were low-level jets or shears at 91.2% of heavy rain caused by northeast cold vortex.The TS score by using "Ingredients method" on forecasting heavy rain caused by the Northeast China cold vortex is 7.4% and 11.1% higher than that of the ECMWF model and T639 model,which was greatly reduces the rate of missing reports on forecasting of heavy rain.Therefore,it has high practical application value and has great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation.