基于CMIP5多模式回报资料的地面气温超级集合研究
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国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB955200);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41575104);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)


Superensemble hindcast of surface air temperature using CMIP5 multimodel data
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    摘要:

    利用CMIP5的15个全球气候系统模式对东亚及周边地区(70~150°E,0°~60°N)地面气温的回报结果进行超级集合(简称SUP)试验,以欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA逐月气温资料作为观测值,并采用均方根误差(RMSE)、距平相关系数(ACC)、绝对误差(MAE)对多模式集合平均(EMN)以及超级集合(SUP)的回报结果进行检验和评估。结果表明,超级集合回报结果一定程度上取决于训练期的长度。随训练期长度的增加,距平相关系数呈增大的趋势,均方根误差呈减小的趋势,但训练期达到一定长度后,误差不再有明显的减小,甚至出现误差增长。15个全球气候系统模式对东亚及周边地区的地面气温具有一定的回报能力,可以较好地回报出地面气温的年际变化和空间分布,海洋上回报的均方根误差小于陆地。但不同模式回报的结果不尽相同,在单模式中CCSM4对地面气温的回报效果最好。多模式集成的回报效果优于单模式的回报效果,SUP的回报效果优于EMN,其区域平均的均方根误差比多模式集合平均小0.43℃,超级集合极大地改善了地面气温的回报效果。

    Abstract:

    The superensemble (SUP) hindcastof the surface air temperature over East Asia and its surrounding areas was conducted based on the CMIP5 runs of 15 climate system models. The ERA data of the monthly surface air temperature were used as observed values, and root-mean-square error (RMSE), anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), and mean absolute error (MAE) were chosen to evaluate the hindcast skills of individual models, the multimodel ensemble mean (EMN) and SUP techniques. The results show that the length of the training period has influence on the hindcast results. The RMSE decreases and the ACC increases as the training period length increases within some ranges. However, the hindcast errors will not decrease or even increase when the training period reaches a particular length. All of the 15 individual models can hindcast with some skills the surface air temperature over East Asia and its surrounding areas, its interannual variation and spatial distribution. Nevertheless, the hindcast skills are different for different models, among which the CCSM4 model has the highest hindcast skill. Multimodel ensemble techniques are superior to individual models in terms of the hindcast skills. The SUP technique has higher hindcast skill than the EMN. The regionally averaged RMSE of the SUP hindcast is around 0.43℃, suggesting that the SUP improves the hindcast skill of the surface air temperature considerably.

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智协飞,赵欢,朱寿鹏,葛非,2016.基于CMIP5多模式回报资料的地面气温超级集合研究[J].大气科学学报,39(1):64-71. ZHI Xiefei, ZHAO Huan, ZHU Shoupeng, GE Fei,2016. Superensemble hindcast of surface air temperature using CMIP5 multimodel data[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,39(1):64-71. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20150109001

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  • 收稿日期:2015-01-09
  • 最后修改日期:2015-03-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-03-16
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