ATMS微波资料特征及其对台风路径预报的影响
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(41175046);装备预先研究项目(110151322043)


Characteristics of ATMS data and their impact on typhoon track forecast
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    摘要:

    采用2012年8月1—30日ATMS(Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder)卫星微波资料,在WRFDA系统中进行资料特征统计分析以及偏差订正试验。针对2012年8月第13号台风“启德”、第14号台风“天秤”和第15号台风“布拉万”,检验同化ATMS卫星微波资料对台风路径预报的影响。结果表明:偏差订正前,ATMS除个别窗区通道和湿度通道偏差大于对应AMSUA/MHS通道外,其余通道偏差均小于后者;与AMSUA/MHS相比,ATMS偏差随扫描位置的变化较小且平滑,ATMS96个扫描点的资料均可用;ATMS窗区通道偏差最大,温度中层通道偏差最小;使用ATMS资料导出的偏差订正系数,可减小温度和湿度通道偏差,相比于直接使用NOAA-18偏差订正系数,可改善台风路径和最低气压预报;个例研究表明,同化中加入ATMS资料后可使台风路径预报偏差降低31%。

    Abstract:

    Based on the ATMS(Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder) satellite microwave data during 1—30 August 2012,this paper analyzes the characteristics of data and does the bias correction tests in WRFDA,and verifies the impact of assimilation ATMS data on track forecasts of typhoons Kai-tak(the 13rd),Tembin(the 14th) and Bolaven(the 15th) in August 2012.Results show that,before the bias correction,the deviations for most ATMS sounding channels are less than those for corresponding AMSUA/MHS channels,except for some window channels and humidity channels.The bias variations across scan position for ATMS channels are less than those for corresponding AMSUA/MHS channels,so the data from all 96 scan positions for ATMS channels can be used.The biases are maximum for ATMS window channels and minimum for ATMS channels 6—10.After using the bias correction coefficients derived from ATMS microwave data,it can reduce the biases for temperature channels and humidity channels and improve the prediction of track and minmum pressure of typhoon compared to directly use the bias correction coefficients from NOAA-18.Case studies show that assimilation of ATMS satellite microwave data can improve the prediction of typhoon tracks.

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刘健文,蔡则帅,闵锦忠,黄江平,2015. ATMS微波资料特征及其对台风路径预报的影响[J].大气科学学报,38(3):421-427. LIU Jian-wen, CAI Ze-shuai, MIN Jin-zhong, HUANG Jiang-ping,2015. Characteristics of ATMS data and their impact on typhoon track forecast[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,38(3):421-427. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20150306001

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  • 收稿日期:2015-03-06
  • 最后修改日期:2015-05-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-07-01
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