江苏夏季旱涝异常的时空变化特征
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江苏省重大科技资助项目(BS2006086);江苏省气象局开放基金资助项目(200704)


Spatial and Temporal Variations of Summer Flood and Drought in Jiangsu Province of China
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    摘要:

    利用1961-2004年中国160站和江苏省59站月平均降水资料,采用分层聚类方法将江苏划分为3个区域:淮北地区(Ⅰ区)、江淮之间及沿江地区(Ⅱ区)和苏南地区(Ⅲ区)。在此基础上,重点分析了3个分区夏季降水异常的时空变化特征及其与全国其他地区的对应关系。结果表明:3个区域的夏季降水异常都存在显著的年际变化和年代际变化特征,但各区域间旱涝异常并没有一致的对应关系,特别是南北区域的年代际变化差异非常明显。淮河以南大部分地区的降水异常都存在准9a和准5a的年际振荡周期,年代际变化略有上升;淮北地区和苏南地区还存在12~15a的年代际周期,并且淮河以北年代际变化呈现下降趋势;此外,江苏夏季降水异常通常与河套、华北北部和华南南部的夏季降水异常呈现反位相对应关系。

    Abstract:

    Based on the monthly mean precipitation data at 160 stations of China and 59 stations of Jiangsu during 1961-2004,the Lamination Cluster Method is firstly used to divide total Jiangsu region into three subregions,i.e.the north to Huaihe River(Region Ⅰ),the in-between of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River with their riverside areas(Region Ⅱ),and the southern Jiangsu(Region Ⅲ).On this basis,the investigation is focused on the spatial and temporal variations of summer precipitation anomalies over the three subregions as well as their possible relationships with other areas in China.Results show that the summer precipitation anomalies over the three subregions exhibit remarkable interannual and interdecadal variations,but the variations are inconsistent in different subregions,especially the interdecadal variation with very evident difference between the south and north to Huaihe River.The quasi 5-yr and quasi 9-yr interannual variations of summer precipitation anomaly exist in most areas south to Huaihe River with an increasing interdecadal trend appreciably,and the 12-15-yr interdecadal variation does in the regions north to Huaihe River and the southern Jiangsu,meanwhile an decreasing interdecadal trend occurs in the north to Huaihe River.Moreover,the summer precipitation anomaly in Jiangsu is usually out-of-phase with that in Hetao area,the northern North China and the southern South China.

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孙燕,朱伟军,魏建苏,吴海英,赵凯,2008.江苏夏季旱涝异常的时空变化特征[J].大气科学学报,31(5):723-730. SUN Yan, ZHU Wei-jun, WEI Jian-su, WU Hai-ying, ZHAO Kai,2008. Spatial and Temporal Variations of Summer Flood and Drought in Jiangsu Province of China[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,31(5):723-730.

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  • 收稿日期:2007-04-27
  • 最后修改日期:2008-08-19
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