东南亚地区年际降水变化及其与ENSO的关系
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(49075028)


Variation Features of Annual and Seasonal Rainfalls in Southeast Asia and Their Relations with ENSO during 1948—2002
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    摘要:

    用Chen等最新创建的全球陆地和海洋的月降水资料(PREC/L和PREC/O),采用加权平均的降水距平指数和旱涝面积指数分别划分1948—2002年东南亚地区年、季的旱涝年,并对划分的旱、涝年进行了旱涝年差异的Monte Carlo检验。研究了东南亚地区降水与ENSO的关系,指出东南亚地区年、秋季和冬季的降水与ENSO事件的关系比较密切,春季降水与其关系稍差一些,夏季与ENSO事件没有明显的联系。研究了东南亚地区旱涝年的分布规律和特征,指出1948—1959年期间除了夏季旱年比涝年多以外,年和春、秋、冬季都是涝年明显多于旱年,60年代年、四季的旱涝相差不多,年和夏季在70年代涝多于旱,春、秋、冬季旱涝相同;1980—1989年是旱年的多发期;1990—2002年期间旱涝年频繁爆发,旱年多于涝年。通过计算东南亚地区年、季的降水趋势系数,得出东南亚地区年、季的降水量大都存在下降趋势,其中年和秋季的下降趋势很明显,春夏两季存在弱的下降趋势,而冬季则有较弱的上升趋势。

    Abstract:

    The dry and wet years in Southeast Asia have been identified and tested by using the Precipitation Reconstruction data set (PREC viz.Precipitation Monthly Anomalies Over Global Land & Oceans from 1948—2003) on annual and seasonal scales from 1948 to 2002.The relation between rainfall and ENSO events has been studied.The results show that in 1948—1959,except summer,wet years,springs,autumns,and winters were evidently more than dry years,springs,autumns,and winters,respectively;in the 1960’s,dry/wet years and seasons were about equal;in the 1970’s,wet years and summers were more than dry years and summers,and wet/dry springs,autumn and winters were about the same;1980—1989 was a frequent period of droughts;and 1990—2002 was a frequent period of droughts/floods with dry years more than wet years.Through calculating the precipitation trend coefficient in Southeast Asia,it was found that a decline trend occurred in annual and seasonal rainfalls except winter.

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郭丽娜,施能,朱兴明,张立波,2006.东南亚地区年际降水变化及其与ENSO的关系[J].大气科学学报,29(1):88-93. GUO Li-na, SHI Neng, ZHU Xing-ming, ZHANG Li-bo,2006. Variation Features of Annual and Seasonal Rainfalls in Southeast Asia and Their Relations with ENSO during 1948—2002[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,29(1):88-93.

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  • 收稿日期:2004-06-28
  • 最后修改日期:2004-10-26
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