越南河内市冬作物生长季降水量ARIMA预测模型
投稿时间:2000-08-28  修订日期:2001-04-19  点此下载全文
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作者单位
杨文坎 南京气象学院环境科学系, 南京, 210044 
李湘阁 南京气象学院环境科学系, 南京, 210044 
中文摘要:考虑了气候系统中一些变量突变时可能对预测关系的改变作用,用ARIMA(Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average)动态模型的建摸方法,通过SAS软件的计算,建立河内冬作物生长季降水量预测模型。用1996-1998年的独立资料检验,预测结果与实况接近。
中文关键词:降水量  ARIMA模型  SAS软件  预测
 
ARIMA MODEL OF FORECASTING WINTER PRECIPITATION IN HANOI
Abstract:A model is established to predict winter precipitation in Hanoi by means of dynamic ARIMA model and SAS software.The possible effect on the forecasting of precipitation caused by the fluctuation of some variables in the climatic system is considered in the model.The model is assessed by 1996~1998 independent data.It is shown that computational results of model are generally consistent with the observation data.
keywords:precipitation,ARIMA model  SAS software  forecast
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