我国近百年气温变化的奇异谱分析
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国家“九五”攻关资助项目96-908-01-01;1999年中国气象局青年科学基金资助项目


Singular spectrum analysis of temperature variations in China during the recent 100 years
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    用奇异谱方法分析我国近百年平均气温的准周期性,结果表明:我国平均气温的年际变化以2~3a周期振荡为主,同时1a左右的准周期振荡也较强,和同期北半球平均气温的准周期性有些差异,不过它们的准1a周期振荡随时间的阶段性变化特征非常相似。将我国大致分成7个区域,对7个区域代表站气温进行奇异谱分析,结果表明:各区气温的准周期振荡及其随时间的变化互不相同。华北、东北、西北和青藏高原4区气温以1a周期振荡最为显著;华东、华南和西南区气温以准2~3a的周期振荡最为显著。

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    The quasi periodicities of Chinese average temperature during the recent 100 years are diagnosed by using singular spectrum analysis( SSA). The results show that there exit two dominant periods which range 2~3 years and around 1 year in Chinese average temperature series, which are different from the quasi periodicities of average temperature in Northern Hemisphere at the same time. But their phase variability features of around 1 year periodic oscillation are resemble each other. China is divided into seven segments. SSA shows that the quasi periodic oscillations and their variations with time are different from each other over the seven segments. The periodic oscillations of around 1 year is most prominent in four domains’ temperatures of North, North East, North West China and the Tibetan Plateau. The periodic oscillations of temperature of quasi 2~3 years are most prominent in East, South and South West China.

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余锦华,丁裕国,江志红,2000.我国近百年气温变化的奇异谱分析[J].大气科学学报,23(4):586-593. Yu Jin hua, Ding Yu guo, Jiang Zhi hong,2000. Singular spectrum analysis of temperature variations in China during the recent 100 years[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,23(4):586-593.

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  • 收稿日期:2000-01-11
  • 最后修改日期:2000-04-24
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