In the context of POP technique,analysis is carried out of tropical monthly mean SSTA.Results show that the most important four POPs are closely related to El Nino/La Nina events,indicating that the event has complicated time space structure.Based on POP analysis,a POP neutral prediction scheme is given,which can integrate multiple propagating POPs and make quantitative prediction.The dependent and independent sample hindcast experiments show that the scheme can make forecast four months in advance,and the predictive skill of El Nino/La Nina event stages is higher than that of non event stages.