气候变化对江苏省小麦生产的可能影响
投稿时间:1997-08-27  修订日期:1997-12-07  点此下载全文
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作者单位
郑有飞 南京气象学院应用气象学系, 南京210044 
宗雪梅 南京气象学院应用气象学系, 南京210044 
徐云 南京气象学院应用气象学系, 南京210044 
陈万隆 南京气象学院应用气象学系, 南京210044 
基金项目:江苏省自然科学基金资助项目BK 95128206
中文摘要:根据国内外研究结果综合分析,得到CO2倍增时江苏省温度、降水的变化值,初步确定了CO2倍增时江苏省小麦生长季内的可能气候情景。分析未来CO2倍增时对小麦作物的直接影响、间接影响及紫外辐射影响。具体估算了温度升高、降水增加、CO2浓度上升、紫外辐射增强后江苏省小麦生育期不变和生育期缩短两种情景下的气候生产潜力,并由此分析了气候变暖对江苏省不同地区的利弊影响。结果表明:江北大部分地区小麦产量有所增加,江淮南部部分地区和苏南将减产。在此基础上用模糊聚类分析方法对CO2倍增时江苏省小麦气候进行区划,并对未来江苏省调整种植制度,发展农业生产提出一些建议。
中文关键词:气候变化  CO2倍增  气候生产潜力
 
POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT PRODUCTION IN JIANGSU
Abstract:A climate scenario of temperature and rainfall under doubled CO2 was derived from synthetic studics of home and abroad for Jiangsu Province.Based on the scenario,effects on winter wheat production were studied of increased CO2 and enhanced solar UV radiation and the crop climate productivity were estimated under two hypotheses of invariable and variable crop growing period respectively.Results showed that wheat output would rise in most part of the province to north of the Yangtze River and go down either in part of southern valley between the Huaihe River and the Yangtze River or in the south of the province.Furthermore,wheat growing was climatically regionalized over the province by fuzzy classification method and finally a number of suggestions were put forward for adjustment of planting system and development of agricultural production.
keywords:climate change  CO2 doubling  climatic productivity
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