月平均高度场预报的多时刻动力统计模式及其应用
投稿时间:1986-07-09  修订日期:1986-10-03  点此下载全文
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作者单位
张邦林  
中文摘要:本文设计了两个预报北半球中高纬地区夏季500hPa月平均高度场的多时刻动力统计数值预报的谱模式:年预报模式和月预报模式。先用变分法,推导一个含有待定系数的以混合多项式为正交基函数的谱展开系数方程组;再根据历史资料,用最小二乘法确定模式中的待定系数;用单纯形法数值求解,作出非独立样本试报。结果表明,它们的预报效果都好于气候预报和随机预报。
 
DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL MODELS FOR FORECASTING THE MONTHLY MEAN HEIGHTS AT 500 hPa AND THEIR APPLICATIONS
Abstract:Two dynamical-statistical spectral models for forecasting the 500 hPa monthly mean height (MMH) in the Northern Hemisphere are described. One is based on the annual variation of MMH; the other on the monthly variation. First, the spectral equations with unknown coefficients are given by means of variation method.Then,making use of past data, the unknown coefficients are estimated by the least square method. Finally, solutions of the two models are obtained by simplex method. It is shown that the skill scores of the models are better than that of persistence forecasting.
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