全球温度变化的随机模式
投稿时间:1986-01-08  修订日期:1986-04-23  点此下载全文
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桂新蓉  
中文摘要:本文在Fraedrich,K.零维能量平衡模式的参数化形式的基础上建立全球温度变化的随机模式,得到模式的解过程为一红噪声过程。文中应用响应谱的离散形式将模式谱的计算结果与北半球(1881—1980年)年平均温度距平序列的实际谱进行了统计检验,从而论证了随机模式模拟全球温度变化的适用性。因此可以应用所建理论模式计算得到北半球温度变化的统计特征值(均值和方差),并与目前的实测值进行了比较。
 
A STOCHASTIC MODEL OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION
Abstract:On the basis of the parameterized form of the Fraedrich’s zero-dimension energy balance model, a stochastic model of global temperature variation is constructed, the solution of which is found to be a red noise process. The correspondence between the computed spectra by the model and the observed ones of annual mean temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere from 1881 to 1980 is statistically examined.The result shows that the proposed stochastic model can be used to calculate the characteristic statistical features of temperature variation, such as mean values and variances, of the Northern Hemisphere.
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