江苏省近二百年干旱的基本特征
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作者单位
柳又春  
史慧敏  
中文摘要:干旱的长期变化规律及其未来的发展、变化趋势的研究,与国民经济,尤其是与农业生产有着十分密切的关系。本文分析了江苏省及苏南、苏北地区近二百年来干旱的时间、空间分布及其阶段性、周期性等变化特征。并用所得到的两个主要周期,参照太阳黑子相对数的11年准周期律,对江苏省未来20年的干旱变化趋势进行了超长期预报,提供有关部门参考。
 
BASIC FEATURES OF DROUGHTS IN JIANGSU PROVINCE DURING THE PAST 200 YEARS
Abstract:The laws governing the secular variation of droughts and studies for their trend are closely related to our national economy, especially to the agricultural production. Analyses are made of the time and space distribution, stages and periodicity of droughts in both the southern and northern parts of Jiangsu Province during the past 200 years By use of the two main cycles calculated and referring to the 11-year quasiperiodic law for the relative number of sunspots, the authors present the trend of the occurrence of droughts in the coming 20 years.
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