苏州地区双季早稻气象产量的积分回归模式
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南京气象学院农业气象教研组 南京气象学院农业气象教研组 
中文摘要:六十年代以来,随着世界人口的急剧增长和天气气候异常造成的全球性粮食供应危机,普遍引起各国政府和许多国际组织的重视,并加强了农作物产量与天气气候条件关系的分析和研究,以期通过制定数学模式来建立可供业务使用的粮食生产供应警报和预报体系,及早采取开源节流等措施。于是、各种统计和统计~动力的农作物产量模式竞相破土而出。本文在学习国内外经验基础上,以苏州地区的双季早稻生产为例,采用积分回归方法,尝试建立地区一级的农作物气象产量模式,供讨论参考。
 
An Integral Regression Model for the Meteorological Output of the Earlier Type of Double-Harvest Rice over the Region of Suzhou
Abstract:By use of "sunshine-temperature ratio" as a composite meteorological factor, an attempt is made to establish an integral regression model for meteorological output of the earlier type of double-harvest rice over the region of Suzhou, Jiangsu, on the basis of the data of the yield per mu of the rice and the weather and climatic conditions during 1963-79. The model was tested for forecasting in 1980 and 1981 and the accuracy proved to bemore than 98%. Further more, the model has greater stability and satisfies the requirement.
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